🇬🇭 Claims Development Pattern Calculator

Analyze Claims Patterns Specific to Ghana's Insurance Market

Ghana-Specific Claims Patterns

Motor Claims

4-6 mo
Average settlement

Bodily Injury

18-24 mo
Court delays

Property (Flood)

2-3 mo
Seasonal peaks

Marine Claims

3-4 mo
Port clearance

Template 1: Claims Development Triangle (Chain Ladder)

Build your claims triangle to identify development patterns

Accident Year 12 months 24 months 36 months 48 months 60 months 72 months Ultimate
2019 12,450 18,675 21,123 22,450 22,890 23,100 23,100
2020 11,200 16,800 19,040 20,230 20,635 - 20,824
2021 14,500 21,750 24,650 26,182 - - 27,149
2022 16,800 25,200 28,560 - - - 31,469
2023 19,200 28,800 - - - - 35,965
2024 22,100 - - - - - 41,385
Development Factors 1.500 1.134 1.062 1.020 1.009 1.000 -
Cumulative Factors 1.872 1.248 1.101 1.037 1.009 1.000 -

📊 Key Insights:

• 50% of claims develop within first 12 months (factor: 1.500)

• 87% complete by 24 months (typical for Ghana motor claims)

• Tail factor of 1.009 suggests minimal long-tail exposure

• Total IBNR: GHS 47,892,000 across all years

Template 2: Claims Payment Pattern Analysis

Understand your payment timing for cash flow and discounting

Product Line Month 1-3 Month 4-6 Month 7-9 Month 10-12 Year 2 Year 3+ Average Duration
Motor Damage 45% 30% 15% 8% 2% - 4.2 months
Motor Third Party 10% 15% 20% 25% 25% 5% 11.8 months
Fire & Property 60% 25% 10% 5% - - 3.1 months
Marine Cargo 50% 35% 10% 5% - - 3.4 months
Engineering 20% 20% 20% 20% 15% 5% 9.6 months

⚠️ Discounting Decision:

• Motor Third Party (11.8 months) - Consider discounting if material

• Engineering (9.6 months) - Near threshold, document your decision

• Other products < 6 months - No discounting required under PAA

Template 3: Ghana Seasonal Claims Pattern

Critical for Ghana due to flooding season (May-July) and December festivities

🌊 Ghana Seasonal Factors:

  • May-July: Flooding season - Property claims spike 300%
  • December: Festive season - Motor claims increase 150%
  • January: Post-festive - Theft/burglary claims rise
  • March-April: Dry season - Fire claims increase
Month Motor Index Property Index Fire Index Marine Index Weighted Average
January 110 95 90 100 98.8
February 95 85 95 100 93.8
March 90 90 120 105 101.3
April 85 95 130 105 103.8
May 95 180 80 95 112.5
June 100 250 70 90 127.5
July 105 220 75 95 123.8
August 95 120 85 100 100.0
September 90 95 90 105 95.0
October 85 85 95 105 92.5
November 90 80 100 100 92.5
December 150 85 90 100 106.3

💡 IFRS 17 Implication:

These seasonal patterns affect your LRC release pattern. Instead of straight-line, use seasonally-adjusted coverage units for more accurate revenue recognition.

Template 4: IBNR Reserve Calculation

Calculate your Incurred But Not Reported reserves using development patterns

Product Line Earned Premium Expected Loss Ratio Expected Claims Reported Claims IBNR Required % of Premium
Motor Insurance 45,000,000 65% 29,250,000 24,500,000 4,750,000 10.6%
Fire & Property 28,000,000 45% 12,600,000 11,200,000 1,400,000 5.0%
Marine & Aviation 12,000,000 50% 6,000,000 5,400,000 600,000 5.0%
Engineering 8,000,000 40% 3,200,000 2,400,000 800,000 10.0%
General Accident 15,000,000 55% 8,250,000 7,100,000 1,150,000 7.7%
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 108,000,000 54.2% 59,300,000 50,600,000 8,700,000 8.1%

Chain Ladder IBNR

8,700,000
GHS

Bornhuetter-Ferguson

9,200,000
GHS (conservative)

Expected Loss Ratio

8,500,000
GHS (simplified)

Selected IBNR

8,700,000
GHS (for IFRS 17)

Template 5: Speed of Settlement Analysis

Critical for determining if discounting is required under PAA

Product 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 365 Days >365 Days Weighted Avg Discount?
Motor Damage 25% 50% 70% 90% 98% 100% 82 days NO
Motor TP (Property) 10% 20% 35% 60% 85% 100% 198 days NO
Motor TP (Bodily) 5% 10% 15% 30% 60% 100% 487 days CONSIDER
Fire & Burglary 40% 65% 80% 95% 100% 100% 56 days NO
Engineering 10% 15% 25% 45% 75% 100% 342 days CONSIDER

📋 NIC Guidance for Ghana:

• Settlement < 12 months: No discounting required unless significant financing component

• Motor TP Bodily Injury: Industry practice varies - document your approach

• Engineering/Construction: Consider project-specific payment terms